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10 Nov 2014
Eurozone GDP Preview: 0.1% qoq in 2014 Q3 – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Barwell, Senior European Economist at RBS forecasts the growth among the big six economies as a pretty mixed bag.
Key Quotes
“At the industry level, we are expecting a contraction of 0.4% in industrial production in Q3 given the data already in the public domain, our expectation that the pace of decline in production in August will be revised and our estimate of a modest bounce-back in production on the month in September”
“We have an expansion of 0.1% in Germany; we expect Belgium, France and the Netherlands will all expand by 0.2%; we have Spain leading from the front at 0.5%; but have pencilled in a contraction of 0.3% in Italy.”
“That bottom up calculation is also consistent with growth of 0.1% in the Eurozone aggregate, but if anything we think that the risks here are to the upside: the risks around our estimates of the pace of expansion in Germany and the pace of contraction in Italy are both skewed to the upside.”
Key Quotes
“At the industry level, we are expecting a contraction of 0.4% in industrial production in Q3 given the data already in the public domain, our expectation that the pace of decline in production in August will be revised and our estimate of a modest bounce-back in production on the month in September”
“We have an expansion of 0.1% in Germany; we expect Belgium, France and the Netherlands will all expand by 0.2%; we have Spain leading from the front at 0.5%; but have pencilled in a contraction of 0.3% in Italy.”
“That bottom up calculation is also consistent with growth of 0.1% in the Eurozone aggregate, but if anything we think that the risks here are to the upside: the risks around our estimates of the pace of expansion in Germany and the pace of contraction in Italy are both skewed to the upside.”