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2 Apr 2015
PLN appears supported vs. the euro – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at BAML noted the Polish zloty remains well supported vs. its European colleague.
Key Quotes
“Despite some easing momentum in 4Q, the economy grew by a solid 3.3% last year. First quarter data so far allow us to remain comfortable with our GDP forecast of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. Our monthly GDP tracking reveals growth is running at more than 3% yoy in January-February”.
“PLN has some additional support from the pause in MPC rate cuts. While we prefer HUF within CEE, PLN should remain supported vs EUR for the time being with more weakening pressures around the election calendar in May and October”.
“In the next 12 months, Poland will go through presidential and general elections, as well as an almost complete change of the Monetary Policy Council. These three events will dictate the policy path for the coming five years. In our view, the opinion polls suggest a continuation of the current trends, including another mandate for Civic Platform (PO) and prudent fiscal management, but potentially a more dovish bias from the future NBP”.
Key Quotes
“Despite some easing momentum in 4Q, the economy grew by a solid 3.3% last year. First quarter data so far allow us to remain comfortable with our GDP forecast of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016. Our monthly GDP tracking reveals growth is running at more than 3% yoy in January-February”.
“PLN has some additional support from the pause in MPC rate cuts. While we prefer HUF within CEE, PLN should remain supported vs EUR for the time being with more weakening pressures around the election calendar in May and October”.
“In the next 12 months, Poland will go through presidential and general elections, as well as an almost complete change of the Monetary Policy Council. These three events will dictate the policy path for the coming five years. In our view, the opinion polls suggest a continuation of the current trends, including another mandate for Civic Platform (PO) and prudent fiscal management, but potentially a more dovish bias from the future NBP”.