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10 Apr 2015
Canada employment in focus - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - RBS Economists expect Canadian March employment figures likely to come in weak, matching the softening data trend.
Key Quotes
"Bank of Canada Governor Poloz made headlines last week when he told the FT that first quarter growth “will look atrocious” as a result of the oil price shock. This broadly matches the view the BoC has set out in previous comments and in their March statement – the BoC is prepared for weakness in the first quarter but is expecting growth momentum to rebound in the second quarter."
"We expect March employment is likely to come in weak as well, matching the trend of softening data in Canada. While natural resources employment is likely to be soft, the recent weakness in both housing starts and building permits may result in weakness in construction sector employment, which was a bright spot in February, when construction employment jumped 15.5K."
"We see the BoC as likely to leave rates on hold next week, particularly with oil prices remaining generally steady, albeit volatile within recent ranges. We see risks to the BoC’s commentary as on the dovish side, as first quarter GDP appears to have underwhelmed relative to the Bank’s January forecasts and moderation in some US indicators may reduce confidence that a pickup in US growth will help the domestic economy recover swiftly from the oil shock."
Key Quotes
"Bank of Canada Governor Poloz made headlines last week when he told the FT that first quarter growth “will look atrocious” as a result of the oil price shock. This broadly matches the view the BoC has set out in previous comments and in their March statement – the BoC is prepared for weakness in the first quarter but is expecting growth momentum to rebound in the second quarter."
"We expect March employment is likely to come in weak as well, matching the trend of softening data in Canada. While natural resources employment is likely to be soft, the recent weakness in both housing starts and building permits may result in weakness in construction sector employment, which was a bright spot in February, when construction employment jumped 15.5K."
"We see the BoC as likely to leave rates on hold next week, particularly with oil prices remaining generally steady, albeit volatile within recent ranges. We see risks to the BoC’s commentary as on the dovish side, as first quarter GDP appears to have underwhelmed relative to the Bank’s January forecasts and moderation in some US indicators may reduce confidence that a pickup in US growth will help the domestic economy recover swiftly from the oil shock."