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20 May 2015
NZ dairy: Very challenging 2015/16 season awaits - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - The ANZ Research Team expects next week's opening Fonterra milk price forecast for 2015/16 around $5.00-$5.25/kg MS range, making the 2015/16 season very challenging for many operations.
Key Quotes
"Overnight the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) auction registered another decline (-2.2%), led by a 3.6% fall for skim milk powder prices (SMP). SMP has been at the centre of the storm in recent months with aggressive selling from Europe into key New Zealand markets."
"Worryingly the later delivery contract periods have softened more aggressively at recent auctions pointing to little buyer anxiety that they will need to pay higher prices anytime soon."
"The price action was a little more encouraging for whole milk powder (-0.5%) and suggests that a trough is near, but a sharp imminent rebound seems a distant prospect."
"Taken with NZD strength in recent months we expect more conservatism to be applied to next week's opening Fonterra milk price forecast for 2015/16. We are expecting something in the $5.00-$5.25/kg MS range, which with low deferred payments from 2014/15 will make the 2015/16 season very challenging for many operations."
Key Quotes
"Overnight the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) auction registered another decline (-2.2%), led by a 3.6% fall for skim milk powder prices (SMP). SMP has been at the centre of the storm in recent months with aggressive selling from Europe into key New Zealand markets."
"Worryingly the later delivery contract periods have softened more aggressively at recent auctions pointing to little buyer anxiety that they will need to pay higher prices anytime soon."
"The price action was a little more encouraging for whole milk powder (-0.5%) and suggests that a trough is near, but a sharp imminent rebound seems a distant prospect."
"Taken with NZD strength in recent months we expect more conservatism to be applied to next week's opening Fonterra milk price forecast for 2015/16. We are expecting something in the $5.00-$5.25/kg MS range, which with low deferred payments from 2014/15 will make the 2015/16 season very challenging for many operations."