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28 May 2015
EUR/USD still points to 1.02 in 6-month – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In spite of occasional bullish attempts, the pair is expected to grind lower to the 1.02 area in a 6-month view, suggested by analysts at Danske Bank.
Key Quotes
“The EUR gained support yesterday on the back of news about progress in the Greek debt negotiations”.
“The modest relief rally temporarily halted the past week’s trend lower in EUR/USD and the cross trades back above 1.09 again following a decline to 1.0819”.
“Fundamentally, we still expect the cross to continue lower targeting 1.02 in 6M”.
“In terms of positioning, the market is still very long USD from a historical perspective, according to the IMM data, which still leaves USD highly sensitive to negative US data surprises”.
“That said, speculative positioning has become less stretched short EUR/USD since late March and when US data start to surprise on the upside (as we look for the remainder of Q2) positioning should not in itself be a barrier for the USD to strengthen further”.
Key Quotes
“The EUR gained support yesterday on the back of news about progress in the Greek debt negotiations”.
“The modest relief rally temporarily halted the past week’s trend lower in EUR/USD and the cross trades back above 1.09 again following a decline to 1.0819”.
“Fundamentally, we still expect the cross to continue lower targeting 1.02 in 6M”.
“In terms of positioning, the market is still very long USD from a historical perspective, according to the IMM data, which still leaves USD highly sensitive to negative US data surprises”.
“That said, speculative positioning has become less stretched short EUR/USD since late March and when US data start to surprise on the upside (as we look for the remainder of Q2) positioning should not in itself be a barrier for the USD to strengthen further”.