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30 Oct 2015
BoJ: key highlight for year end - Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation explained that markets are divided on the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting today.
Key Quotes:
"A Bloomberg survey found 16 of 36 analysts expect looser policy to be announced, with another 8 seeing a steady hand for now but a change in coming months. We lean towards no change but can see why markets are on edge."
"This meeting includes the semi-annual outlook report, updating forecasts which will surely include an admission that it will take longer than previously thought for inflation to reach the 2% target.
Moreover, while Governor Kuroda has not hinted at a policy change, he was similarly opaque a year ago, only to expand QE on 31 Oct 2014, sparking a surge in USD/JPY from 109.40 to above 112. Economic data overall has been mixed enough to produce the division of opinion."
"While seeing USD/JPY downside risks overall, all we can be confident about is that USD/JPY will move sharply on the statement. As usual, the Bank of Japan is unique among major central banks in not confirming a time for the release."
"This year’s announcements have ranged from 11:49am to 1:04pmTokyo, with the latter time being for the 30 April semi-annual report so presumably today’s release will be on the later end of the range, say 2:30-3pm Syd/12:30-1pm Sing/HK."
"The key for JPY is whether the JPY80 trillion monetary base expansion is raised but there is a modest chance of a change in the composition of assets, which would produce volatility but probably a net fall in USD/JPY."
Key Quotes:
"A Bloomberg survey found 16 of 36 analysts expect looser policy to be announced, with another 8 seeing a steady hand for now but a change in coming months. We lean towards no change but can see why markets are on edge."
"This meeting includes the semi-annual outlook report, updating forecasts which will surely include an admission that it will take longer than previously thought for inflation to reach the 2% target.
Moreover, while Governor Kuroda has not hinted at a policy change, he was similarly opaque a year ago, only to expand QE on 31 Oct 2014, sparking a surge in USD/JPY from 109.40 to above 112. Economic data overall has been mixed enough to produce the division of opinion."
"While seeing USD/JPY downside risks overall, all we can be confident about is that USD/JPY will move sharply on the statement. As usual, the Bank of Japan is unique among major central banks in not confirming a time for the release."
"This year’s announcements have ranged from 11:49am to 1:04pmTokyo, with the latter time being for the 30 April semi-annual report so presumably today’s release will be on the later end of the range, say 2:30-3pm Syd/12:30-1pm Sing/HK."
"The key for JPY is whether the JPY80 trillion monetary base expansion is raised but there is a modest chance of a change in the composition of assets, which would produce volatility but probably a net fall in USD/JPY."