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26 Jan 2016
JPY vigilant on BoJ’s QQE – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley noted JPY’s perspective hinges on the future steps of the BoJ regarding its QQE programme.
Key Quotes
“The JPY’s strong performance in early January in response to the rout in China’s stock market and currency proved its status as a safe haven. On the BoJ’s measure, Japan’s effective exchange rate last year had hit its lowest levels since the 1970s. The weakness of the exchange rate was likely a contributing factor behind the BoJ’s reluctance to signal any further expansion of QQE last year”.
“Looking forward, any continuation of coincident strength of the JPY vs. both the USD and the CNY may increase the risk that the BoJ decides to increase QQE this year. That said, risk aversion may limit scope for upside in USD/JPY. We expect the JPY to moderately outperform the EUR on a 3 to 6 moth view”.
Key Quotes
“The JPY’s strong performance in early January in response to the rout in China’s stock market and currency proved its status as a safe haven. On the BoJ’s measure, Japan’s effective exchange rate last year had hit its lowest levels since the 1970s. The weakness of the exchange rate was likely a contributing factor behind the BoJ’s reluctance to signal any further expansion of QQE last year”.
“Looking forward, any continuation of coincident strength of the JPY vs. both the USD and the CNY may increase the risk that the BoJ decides to increase QQE this year. That said, risk aversion may limit scope for upside in USD/JPY. We expect the JPY to moderately outperform the EUR on a 3 to 6 moth view”.