US: Key economic reports for next week - Danske

  Analysts from Danske Bank, point out that next week, key economic releases in the US include retail sales, industrial production, Philly Fed and the CPI among other reports. They explain that Fed speeches will be limited as we enter the unofficial silence period ahead of the September meeting.

Key Quotes:

“In the US next week, several important data releases are due out ahead of the Fed’s September meeting. On Thursday, retail sales figures for August are due out. We estimate decent growth in core (control group) retail sales of 0.25% m/m but a decline in total retail sales of 0.3 % m/m due to a large drop in vehicle sales and lower petrol prices in August; components that are excluded from the control group figures. Retail sales grew strongly in the spring and early summer, indicating private consumption is still the main growth driver.

“On Thursday, the regional Philly and Empire manufacturing activity indices for September are due out. After the significant decline in the ISM manufacturing index in August, it will be important to see if the weakness has continued in September or whether ISM will rebound. Hence, a lot of attention will be drawn to these early releases on September activity. Later on Thursday, the industrial production data for August is also due out.”

“On Friday, the CPI inflation figures for August are due out. We estimate the core index increased 0.2% m/m in August implying a core inflation rate of 2.3 % y/y. Throughout 2015, core inflation trended upwards but this year CPI core inflation has been more and less unchanged. Hence, there is currently no pressure on the Fed from a rising inflation trend. We estimate the headline index increased 0.1% m/m in August, implying an inflation rate of 1.0% y/y. Later on Friday, preliminary consumer confidence index data from University of Michigan for September is due out. We estimate the index increased to 93 in September from 89.8 in August. Regardless of the type of measure, consumer confidence continues to be at a high level, suggesting that the consumer part of the economy is strong.

“Federal Reserve communication in the next week will be limited to a few speeches in the coming weekend and on Monday, as we are now entering the unofficial silence period up to the FOMC meeting on 20-21 September.”