AUD/USD: bearish bias towards 0.7455

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7569, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7589 and low at 0.7560.

AUD/USD's recovery has been shallow and the bearishness after the RBA inhibits attempts at the 0.76 handle. However, analysts at Westpac suggested that  AUD/USD should find support from mostly resilient commodity prices and no real appetite in local interest rate markets to price in further RBA easing, given the concern over housing market strength. 

US: ISM Non-Manufacturing signals activity cooled in March - Wells Fargo

RBA Governor Lowe’s speech at a board dinner yesterday emphasized two aspects of the Board's statement, as analysts at TD Securities noted, " (1) the far more upbeat global outlook and (2) concerns about household debt and financial stability.  The latter took up about half of the script …" We now await the FOMC minutes as the next catalyst where markets will be paying close attention to any detail in regards to the Fed's balance sheet.

"There will be two important aspects of the FOMC minutes that will attract attention," according to analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman, "  First, the Fed will introduce confidence cones around its forecasts.  This may help investors have a better appreciation for the forecasts, and surely why they are not point-specific promises.  Second, the FOMC likely had its first formal discussion of the balance sheet.  The key issue for the market is when and how it will be addressed."

AUD/USD levels

AUD/USD has been testing the  200-day MA near 0.7550."Break below sets up a test of the March low near 0.7490.  A break below 0.7455 and then 0.7385 is needed for a more bearish scenario to unfold," explained the analysts at BBH. Meanwhile, analysts at Commerzbank's longer term outlook is neutral to negative: "The repeated failure in the 0.7750/.7836 region, turns the chart from the topside of a converging range and leaves it heading to the base of the range offered by the 2016-2017 uptrend at .7260."