USD/JPY to get impacted by US senate vote - ING

Analysts at ING, suggest that in the US, there will likely be a Senate vote on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) - though it's difficult to see that what gets passed isn't (a) watered-down to meet the Senate's stricter fiscal rules and (b) not questionable in its actual benefits for the real economy.

Key Quotes

“If the bill does get through the Senate - it would still need reconciling between both houses (the hard part). But on sentiment, and the ever so slightly higher odds of US tax reforms, it could be mildly supportive for the USD. Equally, and rightly so in our view, investors are becoming a bit more cleverer in understanding the messy US politics and big picture limited reflation impetus of this tax bill - meaning that any major USD upside seems unlikely.”

“On the flip side, the global risk environment remains cautious - with the latest story a potential wobble in Chinese markets that draws parallels to the summer of 2015. This could be spilling over into some JPY safe-haven flows. The holiday period lent itself to thin USD/JPY liquidity and potentially an overshoot in the downside move; we would expect some stability in the 111.00-112.00 range given conflicting factors, with the $ potentially recovering some of its losses. Japanese CPI data and 3Q capital spending (both Thu) may be a sideshow for USD/JPY this week.”