US: Consumer confidence measure to remain essentially flat at 122.0 in January - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to remain essentially flat at 122.0 in January, from 122.1 in December, a still-elevated reading (Consensus: 123.0).

Key Quotes

“January sentiment in the University of Michigan survey declined slightly, driven by a sharp drop in the assessment of the current economic situation by self-identified Democrats and Independents. Part of this deterioration in sentiment may reflect the partisan opinion of the recently-passed tax bill.”

“Despite the vast majority of consumers receiving a tax cut, the self-identified Democrats surveyed continue to believe their taxes will go up. As this sentiment ebbs, their evaluation of the current economic situation will likely rebound. Altogether, consumer fundamentals remain firm with healthy job, income and stock market gains, supporting a continued elevated reading for the Conference Board’s January survey.”