US: Q1 GDP to print at 1.6% q/q - TDS

Analysts at TD expects the first estimate of US Q1 GDP to print at 1.6% q/q (ann), well below the market consensus for a 2.0% increase.

Key Quotes

“We look for personal consumption to drive the soft print, though concerns over residual seasonality may blunt the market reaction on a miss.”

“The Q1 Employment Cost Ïndex will be released alongside GDP - TD is on consensus for a 0.7% q/q print, which should leave the y/y pace unchanged at 2.6%.”

“The final print of University of Michigan sentiment for April will round out the data calendar; markets are looking for a modest upward revision to 98.0 from 97.8, though this is well below the 101.4 recorded in March.”