Markets: Key economic releases for the day – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank point out that today we saw Chinese CPI and PPI data for June, where the former edged up a tick to 1.9% y-o-y and the latter jumped to 4.7% y-o-y from 4.1% helped by low base effects.

Key Quotes

“On one hand a higher PPI print is welcome in that it relieves the immediate threat of a return to deflationary factory-gate pressure which is so painful for China’s supply-centric economy. However, the outlook is still for PPI to drift down again ahead into H2, and then those headaches will return just as trade tensions escalate.”

“Next up today it’s UK industrial production (consensus: 0.5%) and trade data, and then the German ZEW survey. That is likely to fall from 80.6 to 78.1 for current conditions and from -16.1 to -18.9 for expectations, and once again I’d suggest risks to the downside as it is analysts giving answers.”

In the US we have the NFIB small business survey, where answers are from real risk-takers, and the answers are likely to be much more positive, albeit edging down from 107.8 to 106.9. If we get a survey that shows no ill effect from trade wars so far, that’s certainly worth noting; and if we get ripples of fear from SMEs, so is that. Either way, we are going to learn something today.”

“In Canada we also have housing starts and building permits ahead of the BoC tomorrow.”