India: Annual rate of CPI likely to decline to 2.96% in October - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for a fall in the India’s annual rate of CPI to 2.96% from 3.31% in October, well below the mid-point of the RBI’s 4% +/-1% target.

Key Quotes

“Declining food and clothing prices played a large role in October. However, core inflation remains sticky and will likely continue to do so in the November reading. Fuel prices eased in November while the outlook for food prices is likely to remain contained given higher than expected crop production.”

“Moreover, a high base from last year points to lower inflation rates in the new few months before picking up again in February 19. As such the RBI revised down its inflation forecasts at its meeting on 5 December.”