Eurozone: Growth has slowed materially - TDS

According to analysts at TD Securities, Euro area growth has slowed materially due to a broad-based contraction in industrial output.

Key Quotes

“We attribute the downturn to several one-offs as well as uncertainty over trade and Brexit. The most notable drivers are a slower transition from EU emissions tests, transportation bottlenecks and a trade shock.”

“We see scope for a recovery in Q1, despite some alarming developments in industrial activity. Trade policy uncertainty remains a key risk.”

“The more domestic-focused sectors of the economy appear solid, with the consumer resilient, wages accelerating, and credit growth strong. Barring spillovers to the consumer and protracted weakness on the industrial side, we continue to expect ECB lift-off in September 2019.”

“FX: We maintain a bullish strategic outlook on EURUSD for now, but recent developments have seen our level of conviction moderate.”