NZ: Strong lift in net migration in December - ANZ

According to the latest data, New Zealand economy registered a strong m/m lift in net migration in December, but the magnitude of revisions since November, suggests this could all be noise, points out the research team at ANZ.

Key Quotes

“The change by Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) to the new 12/16 outcomes based methodology has introduced significant volatility (and near-term uncertainty) into these data. Seasonally adjusted monthly net inflows lifted from 3,310 in November (revised up from 2,480) to 5,080 in December. That’s above both the 3-month and 12-month average as of November (of 3,820 and 4,000 respectively), and on face value suggests the migration cycle could be turning a corner.”

“While a downward trend remains in place, annual net inflows actually lifted slightly from November to 48,300, but remains well below its peak of 64,000 in July 2016. Under the previous intentions-based methodology, the migration cycle was thought to have peaked at 72,400 in July 2017.”

“Turning to the details, seasonally adjusted arrivals rose by 1,300 from November and departures fell 450, pushing up net migration by 1,750 to 5,080.”