AUD/USD eases from two-month top towards 0.7400 on sour sentiment
- AUD/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low, snap four-day uptrend.
- Aussie covid numbers fade hopes of easing local lockdowns even as NSW infections recede.
- 100-day, 200-day EMA convergence precedes four-month-old resistance line to challenge bulls.
AUD/USD teases intraday low surrounding 0.7430 as it flashes the first daily negative performance in five, down 0.26% on a day, by the press time of early Monday. The Aussie pair portrays the market’s sluggish mood amid the mixed signals concerning the coronavirus and the pre-RBA caution. Also challenging the traders is a lack of major data/events and the US holiday.
It’s worth mentioning that Australia’s TD Securities Inflation dropped to 0.0% in August versus a downwardly revised 0.4% figure for July. Further, ANZ Job Advertisements shrank to -2.5% versus -0.5% previous readouts. Hence, the second-tier data line also joined the recently downbeat catalysts to weigh on the quote.
Although Australia’s biggest state (population-wise) New South Wales (NSW) reports easing covid numbers of late, a jump in the virus figures for the second-most populous state Victoria to the yearly top keeps the COVID-19 woes high and exerts downside pressure on the AUD/USD.
It’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for holding the monthly monetary policy meeting this week and hence the pre-RBA cautiousness adds to the pair’s weakness. Given the virus woes, RBA is likely to turn out as a dovish event for the pair.
On a different page, China–Taiwan border tussles and the USD rebound, backed by mildly offered S&P 500 Futures, also trigger the AUD/USD pair’s corrective pullback from a seven-week top.
Moving on, off in the US and light calendar keeps challenging AUD/USD traders but the consolidation may persist ahead of the RBA.
Technical analysis
AUD/USD pair’s latest pullback could be linked to Friday’s failures to cross the 100-day and 200-day EMA confluence, around 0.7470-75. Also challenging the pair buyers is a downward sloping trend line from May 10 close to 0.7480.
It’s worth noting that the buyers remain hopeful, backed by bullish MACD signals, unless the quote drops below a two-week-old support line, around 0.7350 by the press time.
In a case where the AUD/USD prices remain weak past 0.7350, the 0.7300 threshold and July’s low of 0.7288 should return to the charts.
Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 0.7480 will aim for tops marked during July and late June, respectively around 0.7600 and 0.7620.
Overall, AUD/USD needs a strong push to the north to keep the latest run-up, which in turn highlights this week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting.
AUD/USD: Daily chart
Trend: Pullback expected